Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that divided the country and unleashed chaos, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The team have studied the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly divided society where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or activists want to engage with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer endorses unification or the existing arrangement. They composes two articles that aim for impartiality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and social figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated the writer. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they prefer unification but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified arguments, he stated. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will ultimately be defeated but each side has has important lessons to gain from the opposing positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
